Golden Week is set to bring Thailand fewer Chinese visitors than expected, with Tourism Authority of Thailand figures pointing to lower arrivals, softer spending and stronger competition from other destinations.
Golden Week is expected to deliver a smaller-than-planned wave of Chinese visitors to Thailand this year. Tourism Authority of Thailand figures suggest about 200,000 arrivals, which would be 24% fewer than in 2024, while revenue is forecast to fall 17% to 9.1 billion baht.
Why the demand is shifting
Outbound travel from China is still rising, with overseas booking interest up 28% year on year. But much of that growth is going elsewhere. Japan has seen especially strong gains, including Osaka up 66% and Tokyo up 24%, while Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore are benefiting from competitive prices.
Thailand, despite its visa-exemption programme, is not in the top ten most popular destinations for this holiday period. Experts say the main issues are safety concerns and a lack of new attractions that would keep Chinese travellers focused on Thailand.
Cheaper rivals are winning attention
Price is a major factor in the regional contest for Golden Week travellers. Japan’s average prices have fallen 15% because of the weak yen. Singapore and Malaysia have offered flights and packages that are 6% cheaper than a year ago. South Korea has also introduced a visa-free programme for small tour groups.
Some Chinese tourists are using the longer holiday from 1 to 8 October to visit Europe instead. Group travel from China to France, Switzerland and Spain has risen by 110%. South Africa has also recorded a 30% increase, helped by a simple e-visa system.
What Thailand still expects
Thailand does not face a complete collapse in interest. TAT says Chinese tourists will stay an average of 6 to 8 nights and spend around 6,600 baht per day. Flights from China are up 5%, mainly from Beijing, Guangzhou and Chengdu.
The government has also launched a subsidy campaign for charter flights from second-tier cities such as Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Chongqing. In total, at least 30 charter flights are expected to arrive during this period.
Why this matters beyond one holiday
Golden Week is a useful snapshot of how fast regional tourism patterns can change. The data suggests that visa policy alone is not enough to secure market share. To regain momentum with Chinese travellers, Thailand needs better security, new attractions and stronger promotion.
For other international visitors, the same shift may bring a practical upside. Fewer Chinese group tours can mean less crowding at popular places and a calmer atmosphere in some of Thailand’s best-known destinations.
