Thailand inflation fell 0.72% year on year in September 2025, marking a sixth straight monthly decline. The latest Thailand inflation data points to cheaper energy and food, while core prices and employment still suggest the economy is not in deflation.
Thailand inflation fell 0.72% year on year in September 2025, extending a six-month run of declines. The drop has pushed headline prices close to zero, but officials and economists say the broader picture still does not point to deflation.
Why prices are falling
The main reason for the slowdown is government support that has lowered living costs. Authorities cut energy prices, reducing fuel costs and electricity tariffs. At the same time, fresh food has become cheaper in recent months, including vegetables, fruit and eggs.
That combination has reduced what households pay for basic goods and kept the consumer price index moving down steadily. For consumers, the immediate effect is lower pressure on everyday spending.
Core inflation stays positive
Despite the weak headline reading, economists say Thailand inflation is not signaling deflation because core CPI remains above zero. Core CPI excludes energy and food, and in September it stood at +0.65%.
That was lower than August’s +0.81%, but it still indicates that domestic demand remains present. In other words, people are still buying, and prices outside the most volatile categories continue to rise modestly.
- September headline inflation: -0.72% year on year
- Sixth consecutive month of declines
- September core CPI: +0.65%
- August core CPI: +0.81%
What the authorities are saying
Nantapong Jiralertpong, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), said the economy does not meet the criteria for deflation. He pointed to stable domestic demand and normal employment levels as the key reasons for that assessment.
His comments underline the government’s view that the current slowdown is driven mainly by lower energy and food prices, not by a broad collapse in spending or activity.
Outlook for the final quarter
The Ministry of Commerce expects inflation to remain close to 0% in the fourth quarter. It estimates that the full-year result could come in at about 0.0% if energy prices stay at current levels.
That would keep the cost of living lower than in previous periods and may help consumer sentiment. At the same time, such a low reading creates a challenge for fiscal and monetary policy, which may have less room to respond if growth slows further.
For now, Thailand inflation remains a sign of very soft prices rather than a deflationary shock. The distinction matters: headline inflation is near zero, but core price trends and employment data still point to an economy that is moving, even if only slowly.
